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SONA 2026: South Africa can turn global turmoil into an African opportunity

  • 3 days ago
  • 6 min read
SONA 2026
SONA 2026

With Africa set to become the world’s fastest-growing economic region in 2026[i], and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) spurring rising trade within the continent, the State of the Nation address this week [Thurs, 12 Feb] is a pivotal opportunity for the government to enable South Africa to become a key hub of African trade and investment.

 

“Amid global volatility, geopolitical and trade tensions, and disruption of long-entrenched pillars of the international order, Africa’s story is becoming one of resilient economies and guarded optimism. While the world’s economic engines sputter, Africa’s are gradually picking up steam and South Africa, as one of the continent’s largest economies, must seize this moment,” said Jason Hamilton, guest lecturer in Corporate and Development Finance at Stellenbosch Business School.

 

Hamilton says President Cyril Ramaphosa should use the State of the Nation Address (SONA) to signal a “bold, but concrete agenda” of participation in the African economic opportunity by unblocking the country’s structural hurdles standing in the way of business expansion, investment and employment creation.

 

“Key focus areas should be modernising regulations, cutting red tape to facilitate ease of doing business, upgrading of energy, logistics and digital infrastructure, addressing youth unemployment through emphasis on digital skills, technical trades and entrepreneurship, and accelerating trade diplomacy and regional leadership.”

 

While growth in many developed economies is sluggish, African countries account for 12 of the 20 fastest-growing world economies.[ii] The African Development Bank forecasts 4.3% growth in African economies in 2026,[iii] outpacing the global average of 2.6% forecast by the World Bank,[iv] and overtaking the Asian region as the world’s fastest-growing economic region.

 

Calling AfCFTA “one of South Africa’s brightest opportunities, and a safety net against growing global fragmentation”, Hamilton said early momentum was being seen as the agreement moved into implementation, with intra-African commerce rising while overall global trade was slowing and hamstrung by tariff wars.

 

“Sub-Saharan Africa’s goods trade grew nearly 10% in early 2025, and new export opportunities are opening up. The Trade Law Centre notes that South African exports under AfCFTA preferences already hit R820 million in 2025 in the pilot phase, a small but significant start.

 

“South Africa is well-positioned to serve as a manufacturing and services hub for the continent, leveraging our relatively advanced infrastructure and financial systems to connect African producers and consumers.:

“While AfCFTA is not a magic wand, its creation of the world’s largest free trade bloc by membership is the single most promising lever for Africa’s economic future currently in play. For South Africa, it is a game-changer that could reset our growth trajectory,” he said.

 

The AfCFTA aims to progressively harmonise regulations and standards, eliminate tariffs and reduce other barriers to movement of goods and people for 1.3 billion Africans, connecting the continent’s $3.4 trillion market, and forecast to boost intra-African trade by over 50% by 2035. [v]

 

He said South Africa stood at a crossroads where “global turmoil can either compound our problems or spur us to make bold changes that harness our human capital and natural advantages”.

 

Specific reforms and measures to capitalise on African opportunities, that should be addressed in the SONA, are:

 

  • Regulatory Reform and Ease of Doing Business

For South African to become a “magnet” for investment and innovation, means cutting red tape and modernising regulations to ease the processes and costs of doing business – spanning from simplifying business registration and licensing to more flexible labour regulations for small businesses, to clear and consistent policy in sectors like mining and telecoms.

“If we want both local and foreign investors to bet on South Africa, and create jobs in the process, we have to signal that bureaucracy will not stand in their way. Predictable, investor-friendly rules can unleash entrepreneurship and attract capital that is currently wary.

“And critically, we must support our own SMEs in becoming export-ready, providing trade finance and information to help a new generation of African traders emerge,” Hamilton said.

 

  • Infrastructure (Energy, Transport, Digital)

While the country has now reached over 260 days without load-shedding, the instability of power supply remains a concern. Hamilton called for “solidifying energy security” through a mix of stabilising Eskom, adding renewable and distributed power capacity, and enabling private investment in the grid.

 

As AfCFTA implementation gears up, efficient logistics will be the backbone of SA’s competitiveness, and he hoped that Pres Ramaphosa would use SONA to advance measures to streamline logistics and urgently upgrade transport infrastructure of rail, ports, roads and border posts to handle increased trade with the continent.

 

On digital infrastructure (broadband, 5G, data centres), he said government should spur investments – both public spending and attracting private capital – to expand internet access, “especially to underserved rural and township communities, so that the digital economy doesn’t leave anyone behind”.

 

Hamilton also pointed to the AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol, adopted in 2024, as an opportunity lying in the “exciting intersection of trade and technology integration”. The protocol aligns e-commerce rules, digital payments, and data standards across Africa and is projected to create a continental digital economy, projected to reach $180 billion by 2026.

 

“For South African entrepreneurs and tech startups, this means a seamless Africa-wide online market in which to scale up. Fintech apps can reach a user base of hundreds of millions, riding on Africa’s mobile money revolution. Digital trade, enabled by AfCFTA, could be a powerful equaliser – allowing our small businesses and youth innovators to go pan-African without the historic barriers of distance and disparate regulations,” he said.

 

  • Education, Skills and Youth Employment

Harnessing the “demographic dividend” of Africa’s growing youth population requires that young people are equipped to drive the economy of the future.

 

“South Africa exemplifies this challenge, with almost half (46%)[vi] our youth unemployed. This is more than a statistic; it’s a social time bomb. A demographic dividend can turn into a demographic disaster if we don’t create opportunities fast. We must confront the reality that current growth is nowhere near enough to absorb the armies of young people entering the job market.”

 

Hamilton called for the SONA to address the overhaul of the education system and vocational training programmes to “close the gap between what schools produce and what the market demands”.

 

“Emphasis should be on digital skills, technical trades, and entrepreneurship – the capabilities needed in a diversifying, modernising economy. Expanding apprenticeship and internship initiatives can give young people critical work experience, which makes them far more employable.

 

“Government, in partnership with industry and educational institutions, should scale up ‘learn-and-earn’ programmes in sectors like manufacturing, tech, and green energy. Targeted support for youth entrepreneurs (such as micro-loans, incubators, and mentorship programmes) can help unleash startups that create jobs rather than only jobseekers.

 

“The unemployment crisis among youth is a national emergency, and every policy from tax incentives for companies hiring first-time workers, to expanding public works programmes, should be on the table.”

 

  • Trade Diplomacy and Regional Leadership

On the diplomatic front, Hamilton said South Africa should leverage its position in the African Union, SADC, and forums such as BRICS to push for greater economic cooperation, as well as work to resolve regional conflicts and instabilities that threaten trade routes.

 

The SONA should address progress in concluding key AfCFTA aspects still under negotiation, including intellectual property, competition policy and investment rules, and South Africa should lead by example in implementing agreed protocols.

 

“Our diplomatic energy in 2026 should lean into South-South cooperation, aligning with the Global South’s trend of countries increasing trade with each other and remaining non-aligned amid great-power clashes. South Africa can be a voice for multilateralism and open trade even as others turn protectionist, a stance that benefits all Africans.

 

“At the same time, we should also not neglect ties beyond Africa and our trade diplomacy needs to focus on smart engagement with the USA, UK, EU, China and others, to ensure we maintain access to those markets. We need to be forging bilateral deals on issues such as non-tariff barriers that still hinder South African goods in some markets,” he said.

 

“The State of the Nation Address 2026 is an opportunity to demonstrate that the government has a plan to deal with global risks and that it sees the opportunities and has a plan to seize them. It’s a chance to send a message to investors, both local and foreign, that South Africa is gearing up for ‘business unusual’ – cutting red tape, investing in infrastructure, and embracing innovation.

 

“And it’s a chance to speak to every citizen, especially the youth, and say: we have not forgotten you; you are at the heart of this agenda,” Hamilton said.

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

[vi] Stats SA. May 2025. SA’s Youth in the Labour Market. https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=18398

 


 
 
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